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Two weeks of negotiations are about to end, and today we will see if they will deliver a result. Someone said that COP19 already is an historic COP. It is the first COP ever where the ambitions are lower when the meeting ends, than when the meeting began. The statement refered to the fact that Japan and Australia announced dereased ambitions. However, if miracles aren't happening today, we may end up with reduced emissions also in other areas.
There are three themes which need to be closed today. And they will only be closed if the results can be ballanced so that all parties feel that they have something to bring back home.
Firstly, COP19 has been called a "finance COP" and expectations were high. Warsaw was supposed to deliver answer to the questions about climate finance in the coming years, towards the existing 2020 commitment. Still, developed countries arrived without a mandate to engage actively in negotiations about the coming years. Talks about "scaling up" climate finance have been difficult and can only be solved if ministers take new initiatives to look for compromises or increased ambition.
Secondly, the last COP, in Doha a year ago, agreed that COP19 should deliver some kind of institution for loss and damage. Decisions are supposed to be implemented, but some of the western countries questioned the need for an institution, already from the first day in Warsaw. It has been a struggle to move these talks forward and it will be a difficult task to find agreement.
Finally, the talks about a global agreement, to be adopted in 2015, have not been able to move forward. The draft text is nothing more than an empty shell, with no commitments or clear decisions. If no substance is added, for example about equity, transparency and forthcoming pledges, the agreement will play a limited, if any, role for the continued process towards 2015.
COP19 has so far been a big dissapointment, which has also been reflected by a big number of NGOs, who yesterday decided to leave the meeting in protest against the lack of progress. There is now one day left and delegates will have a busy program. And so will we, NGO who will continue to call for incresaed ambition.
At the opening of COP19, delegates were remidned about the effects of climate change, by the super tyfon which had hit the Phillipines. The urgency is clear for everyone, and hopefully ministers arriving to the conference for the finaly day, share the understanding of this urgency. We need a miracle to make COP19 a success. It is still possible. Please, make it happen!
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